1. A Dollar in distress (EUR 1 = USD 1.75 at the end of 2008): Panic-fear of a US currency and economy collapse eats into the American collective psyche
Bernanke, Paulson and Bush bark but the USD will not deviate one iota from EUR 1 = USD 1.75 at the end of 2008, according to the forecasts of LEAP/E2020
2. Global financial system: An impossible requirement – placing Washington under international trusteeship – provokes the system’s break
Washington’s decision to raise the bids for the return to a « strong Dollar » bears the seeds of an acceleration of the global financial system’s breaking process
3. European Union: The periphery sinks into the recession, the Eurozone only slows down
As regards the European Union, the situation will be contrasted, as anticipated many times by LEAP/2020
4. Asia: The « double whammy » inflation/export-collapse
Economies based on cheap costs and exports, hit by inflation and recession (US) or economic slowdown (EU) in two major export markets, these are the characteristics of the situation for Asian countries in the coming six months
5. Latin America: Difficulties increase but growth remains steady in most parts of the region, Mexico and Argentina in crisis
The Very great US Depression will have very specific direct consequences on all countries of the area, namely in Central America and the North of South-America
6. Arab world: Pro-Western regimes go adrift / 60 percent risk of socio-political explosion on Egypt-Morocco axis
According to LEAP/E2020, the global systemic crisis contributes to weaken Arab states’ pro-Western regimes
7. Iran: 70 percent probability of an attack by October 2008 confirmed
The nomination of Barak Obama as the Democrat opponent to John McCain props up the risk
8. Banks/Speculative bubbles: When bubbles collide
World banks, American and British in particular, will be trapped between 4 bubbles, in fact now four bombs
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