Is US heading towords another recession?

US stock market is down continuously for the sixth week. This is the worst in nine years. If this continues for one more week, then this is the worst state after the 2001 Dot Com bubble.

QE2 is going to end in June 2011. Now Fed. is releasing more risky mortgage bonds and are bought by big banks. This makes the Fed. monetary base as high. This may be the starting point for the recession

Some of the signs for the recession are seen recently.

1. The Unemployment rate is increased to 9.1%
2. The Dow Jones is falling down continuously.
3. tax receipts from households total less than the government paid out in unemployment
4. One out of every four dollars that the U.S. government borrows goes to pay the interest on the national debt.
5. China has announced that they are going to be reducing their holdings of U.S. dollars.
6. Americans are planning to slow down their spending due to price increase.

Below is the comparison of "Great Depression vs Great Recession".

		Great Depression		Great Recession
Bank failures	9,096 – 50% of banks (Jan. 1930 – March 1933)		57 – 0.6% of banks (Dec. 2007 – May 2009)
Unemployment rate	25%		8.5%
Economic decline1	-26.5% (1929 - 1933)		-3.3% (Second quarter 2008 - first quarter 2009)
Biggest decline in Dow Jones industrial average	-89.2% (Sept. 3, 1929 – July 8, 1932)		-53.8% (Oct. 9, 2007- March 9, 2009)
Change in prices	-25% (1929 – 1933)		+0.5% (Dec. 2007-March 2009)
Emergency spending programs	1.5% of GDP for 1 year (Increase in 1934 budget deficit)		2.5% of GDP for 2 years2 (2009 American Reinvestment and Recovery Act)
States’ response	Raise taxes, cut spending		Federal stimulus plan gives fiscal relief to states to lessen impact of tax increases
Increase in money supply by Federal Reserve	17% (1933)		125% (September 2008 – May 2009)

Some of the values of above Great Recessions are already reached now. Is it going to be another recession? Or Is US heading towards a "Great Depression"?

Saravanan